06. 能源問題的爭論：一大堆熱氣 The Energy Debate: A Lot of Hot Air
AS OFTEN ATTRIBUTED TO Mark Twain, “Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” Apparently we’re trying to prove him wrong.
由於經常歸因於馬克·吐溫，“每個人都在談論天氣，但沒有人做任何事情。”顯然，我們正在試圖證明他是錯的。
We are actually blaming weather patterns on man-made causes. First, the so-called “experts” told us we were responsible for global warming, but then, when temperatures started dropping, scientists began referring to these variations as “climate change.”
我們正在人為原因造成的實際指責的天氣模式。首先，所謂的“專家”告訴我們，我們為全球變暖負責，但後來，當氣溫開始下降，科學家們開始稱這些變化為“氣候變化”。
Now these “experts” can’t figure out whether it’s getting too hot or too cold, so the new term is “extreme weather conditions.” That covers everything from boiling heat to frigid ice. However, the point is the same: By sending the by-products of burning fossil fuels into the atmosphere, we have supposedly changed the natural weather patterns.
現在，這些“專家”無法弄清楚是否是太熱或太冷，所以新的術語是“極端的天氣條件。”這涵蓋了從沸騰到冰冷的冰。然而，該點是相同的：通過發送燃燒化石燃料到大氣中的副產物，我們推測改變自然天氣模式。
And our president is most concerned about climate change?
而我們的總統是最為關心的氣候變化？
If you go back in history, you’ll find that the biggest tornadoes we’ve had in this country took place in the 1890s, and the most hurricanes occurred in the 1860s and ’70s. Violent climate “changes” are nothing new.
如果你回顧歷史，你會發現，我們已經在這個國家最大的龍捲風在19世紀90年代發生了，最颶風發生在19世紀60年代和70年代。暴力氣候“變化”早已不是什麼新鮮事。
We have even had ice ages.
我們甚至有過冰河時代。
I just don’t happen to believe they are man-made.
我只是不碰巧相信他們是人為造成的。
I do agree that so-called global climate change is causing us some problems: It’s causing us to waste billions of dollars to develop technologies we don’t need to fulfill our energy needs.
我不同意，所謂的全球氣候變化是導致我們一些問題：它導致我們浪費了數十億美元來開發我們並不需要滿足我們的能源需求的技術。
President Obama introduced a program known as “cap and trade,” which sets a ceiling, or cap, on annual carbon dioxide emissions for companies. This would have forced them to reduce those emissions or pay a tax for the excess released above their cap. Because he could not get this legislation through the Congress, he has had his minions at the Environmental Protection Agency try to impose this plan through rule-making.
美國總統歐巴馬推出了被稱為“限額與交易”，其中設置一個上限，或上限，年度二氧化碳排放量的公司的計劃。這將迫使他們減少這些排放或繳納個稅為他們蓋上面發布的過剩。因為他無法得到通過國會這一立法，他有他的爪牙在美國環境保護署試圖通過制定規則強加給這個計劃。
This plan has succeeded mostly in doing one thing—keeping oil at an inflated price. Even after oil has dropped to $50 a barrel, we still live with prices at the pump that are too high.
該計劃主要是在一個誇張的價格做一件事保持油成功。即使在油價已跌至每桶50 $，我們仍然生活與泵是太高的價格。
For example, the Marcellus Shale Fields lying under New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia could produce the equivalent of tens of billions of barrels of oil, giving us plenty of time to develop sensible and cheaper alternative forms of energy.
例如，馬塞勒斯頁岩田臥下紐約，賓夕法尼亞，俄亥俄和西弗吉尼亞州可能會產生數百億萬桶石油等價，給我們足夠的時間來發展能源的合理和更便宜的替代形式。
Right now, we are greatly dependent on oil. The cost of energy is one of the driving forces of our economy. Job creation is tied directly to the cost of oil. The more it costs to get it out of the ground and to the consumer, the fewer jobs that are created in all the industries that run on oil. We don’t even know how much oil is sitting buried under your feet as you read this book right now.
現在，我們極大地依賴於石油。能源成本是我們經濟的驅動力之一。創造就業機會是直接關係到石油的成本。越多它的成本把它弄出來的地面，並給消費者，這在所有有關石油運行行業創造的就業機會減少。我們甚至不知道有多少油是坐在你的腳下埋的你現在讀這本書。
Researchers at Rice University in Houston, Texas, have estimated we might have two trillion barrels of recoverable oil, enough to last the next 285 years. Technology has changed so much in the last few years that a Goldman Sachs study has estimated that by 2017 or 2018, we could overtake both Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world’s largest oil producer.
在德克薩斯州休斯頓萊斯大學的研究人員們估計我們可能有石油可採兩種萬億桶，足以維持在未來285年。科技改變了這麼多，在過去的幾年裡，一個高盛的研究估計，到2017年或2018年，我們就可以超越這兩個沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯，成為世界上最大的石油生產國。
The oil is there for the taking; we just have to take it.
石油是有服用;我們只是把它。
I’ve never understood why, with all of our own reserves, we’ve allowed this country to be held hostage by OPEC, the cartel of oil-producing countries, some of which are hostile to America. For the last few decades, the leaders of OPEC have been sitting around their conference table, setting the price of oil and laughing at us.
我永遠無法理解為什麼，所有我們自己的儲備，我們已經讓這個國家受到歐佩克被挾持，石油生產國，其中有些是敵視美國的卡特爾。在過去的幾十年裡，歐佩克的領導人一直坐在他們的會議桌旁，制定油價和嘲笑我們。
We can’t be fooled or lulled into a sense of security by the current drop in oil prices, which is unpredictable and still insufficient, given the amount of oil out there. Those oil prices are like the weather: guaranteed to change. We need to be prepared to drill our own oil. And we need to take advantage of every opportunity, including approving the Keystone XL Pipeline.
給油量在那裡我們不能上當，或哄騙成油價目前的下降，這是不可預測的，仍然沒有足夠的安全意識。這些油價就像天氣：保證改變。我們需要準備鑽我們自己的石油。我們需要利用每一個機會，包括批准梯形XL管道。
It’s an outrage that Obama has delayed and probably even killed the 1,179-mile-long pipeline that would carry oil from Canada’s tar sands to Nebraska, where it would connect to existing pipelines that would take it all the way to Texas, and at the same time create thousands of construction jobs. The excess of oil on the market, which has caused a great drop in prices, has made it seem less vital today, but eventually the world will need that oil, and we will need the good jobs that it will create.
這是一個憤怒，歐巴馬已經推遲，甚至可能殺死了1179英里長的管道，將隨身攜帶的石油從加拿大油砂到內布拉斯加州，在那裡它會連接到現有管道，將採取它所有的方式到得克薩斯州，並在同一時間創造數千個建築崗位。過剩的市場，這也導致了價格大幅度下降對石油，取得了今天看起來不那麼重要，但最終世界將需要石油，我們將需要良好的就業機會，這將創造。
One of the main criticisms of the pipeline has been the possibility of oil spills. Even the State Department has said the pipeline will be safe, and far better and safer than the existing system of transport. But mere possibilities shouldn’t prevent progress. You prepare for these situations, taking as many precautions as possible, and when they occur, you clean them up.
其中管道的主要批評一直漏油的可能性。即便是國務院曾表示，該管道將是安全的，並且遠遠高於運輸現有的系統更好，更安全。但是，單純的可能性不應該阻止進展。您對這些情況準備，採取盡可能多的預防措施成為可能，並發生時，您清除它們。
We need to expand our own sources of oil, because the Middle East, our largest external source, is becoming more and more unstable. We still need Saudi Arabian oil, although we’re less dependent on their product than we were only a few years ago.
我們需要擴大我們自己的油源，因為中東，我們最大的外部源，正成為越來越多的不穩定。我們仍然需要沙特阿拉伯的石油，但我們越來越少地依賴於他們的產品比我們前幾年只是。
But Saudi Arabia is a main target of or in some cases the home of terrorists. Given the Saudi overreliance on oil exports and their lack of a sustainable economy outside of oil, they are probably going to need our help at some point to stay in business. That’s a real threat, which is why we need to reduce our foreign oil dependence considerably.
但沙特是恐怖分子的家中或在某些情況下，一個主要目標。鑑於石油出口沙特的過度依賴和石油之外缺乏一個可持續發展的經濟，他們可能會需要我們的幫助在某一時刻留在企業。這是一個真正的威脅，這就是為什麼我們需要大大減少我們的外國石油的依賴。
Our first priorities need to be approving the Keystone XL Pipeline and starting to drill everywhere oil is accessible.
我們的第一優先級需要被批准梯形XL管道，並開始到處鑽油訪問。
There has been a big push to develop alternative forms of energy—so-called green energy—from renewable sources. That’s another big mistake. To begin with, the whole push for renewable energy is being driven by the wrong motivation, the mistaken belief that global climate change is being caused by carbon emissions. If you don’t buy that—and I don’t—then what we have is really just an expensive way of making the tree-huggers feel good about themselves.
已經有一個很大的推動，開發替代能源形式，所謂的綠色能源來自可再生能源。這又是一個很大的錯誤。首先，整體推進可再生能源正在被錯誤的動機，錯誤地認為，全球氣候變化是由碳排放造成的驅動。如果你不買，我不 - 那麼我們有什麼是真正的製作只是一個昂貴的方式樹木擁抱者自我感覺良好。
The most popular source of green energy is solar panels. They work, but they don’t make economic sense. They don’t provide enough energy savings to cover the cost of installing and using them. They are the most highly subsidized form of green energy in America.
綠色能源的最普遍的來源是太陽能電池板。他們的工作，但他們沒有經濟意義。它們不提供足夠的積蓄能量以覆蓋安裝和使用它們的成本。他們是在美國綠色能源的最高額補貼的形式。
Some estimates claim it takes as long as several decades after installing solar panels to get your money back. That’s not exactly what I would call a sound investment.
有人估算聲稱只要它需要為安裝太陽能電池板，以拿回自己的錢後，幾十年。這不正是我稱之為一種合理的投資。
Even if that number is only half right, what kind of investment do you make that takes 20 years before you break even? I understand solar energy is eventually going to become more efficient and maybe even cost-effective. Maybe. When it proves to be affordable and reliable in providing a substantial percent of our energy needs, then maybe it’ll be worth discussing. Meanwhile, we have to keep our cars and trucks running and our homes and buildings heated. There are much more efficient, cost-effective, and reliable ways of doing that.
即使這個數字只對了一半，你做什麼樣的投資是需要20年你收支平衡過嗎？我明白太陽能最終將成為更有效的，甚至具有成本效益。也許。當它被證明是廉價和可靠的提供我們的能源需求大幅％，那麼也許這將是值得商榷的。同時，我們必須保持我們的汽車和卡車運行，我們的住宅和建築物加熱。還有更有效，符合成本效益，以及這樣做的可靠的方法。
It’s no secret that I’ve had serious personal issues with the supporters of wind turbines. For several years I battled the Scottish government over its plan to construct a really ugly wind farm consisting of eleven giant turbines right offshore of one of the most beautiful golf resorts in the world in Aberdeen.
這已經不是什麼秘密，我已經與風力渦輪機的支持者嚴重的個人問題。幾年來，我作戰了蘇格蘭政府在其計劃建立一個真正醜陋的風電場包括十一個巨大的風力發電機權離岸阿伯丁世界上最漂亮的高爾夫球度假勝地之一。
The Trump International Golf Links Scotland resort in Aberdeen is a great tourist attraction that will benefit the Scottish economy and create jobs, while these turbines destroy some of the great beauty of the world.
阿伯丁特朗普國際高爾夫球場蘇格蘭度假區是一個偉大的旅遊景點，將有利於蘇格蘭經濟和創造就業機會，而這些渦輪機破壞了一些世界上最偉大的美。
There isn’t sufficient wind power anyplace else?
沒有足夠的風電其他任何地方？
To me, this policy never made sense. Even at its peak output the Scottish government was going to have to spend millions of pounds a year subsidizing this wind farm. We held up the project in court for almost five years and during that time the price of oil fell so drastically that this project no longer makes economic sense. So it is never going to be built. I did Scotland a big favor.
對我來說，這個政策永遠是有意義的。即使在其峰值輸出蘇格蘭政府將不得不花費數百萬英鎊的補貼每年這個風電場。我們在法庭上舉行了項目近五年來，在這段時間原油價格下跌這麼厲害，這個項目不再具有經濟意義。因此，它是永遠不會被建造。我做蘇格蘭一個大忙。
Like other countries, Scotland is trying to completely fulfill its energy needs from renewable sources within the next decade, but there is considerable skepticism about that plan. Bill Gates said flatly in 2015, “Renewable energy can’t do the job. Governments should switch green subsidies into R&D.” The cost to generate that much power from solar and wind energy would be, he said, “beyond astronomical.” He told the Financial Times that the answer to supplying our future energy needs is going to come from technological breakthroughs yet to be achieved. Gates said he intended to invest as much as $2 billion in renewable energy research—but not in the development of wind and solar energy.
與其他國家一樣，蘇格蘭正試圖完全履行在未來十年內可再生能源的能源需求，但有關該計劃相當大的質疑。比爾·蓋茨淡淡地說，2015年，“可再生能源不能做的工作。各國政府應改用綠色補貼投入研發。“該成本以從太陽能和風能那麼大的權力能量會，他說，”超越天文數字。“他告訴金融時報說，答案提供我們未來的能源需求是要來從技術突破尚未實現。蓋茨說，他打算在可再生能源的投資高達2十億$研究，但不是在風能和太陽能的發展。
There are also a lot of questions about the damage that solar and wind power do to the environment. A recent study reported by a British think tank concluded that wind energy is “inordinately expensive and ineffective at cutting CO2 emissions.” Not only that, it added, “wind power, backed by conventional gas-fired generation, can emit more CO2 than the most efficient gas turbines running alone”—and building these steel monsters, mostly in China, causes many pollutents.
也有很多關於太陽能和風能發電盡量減少對環境的破壞問題。最近由英國智庫一份研究報告得出的結論是風能“在削減二氧化碳排放量不相稱昂貴和無效的。”不僅如此，它補充說，“風電，通過傳統的燃氣發電的支持下，能發出更多的CO 2比最高效的燃氣輪機獨自跑來“ - 和建立這些怪物鋼材，主要是在中國，導致許多pollutents。
Ironically, at the same time the wind farm in Scotland was going ahead, a similar project was denied approval in Doonbeg, Ireland, where I am building another beautiful resort. The plan there was to spoil the lavish views with nine 413-foot turbines—that’s like lining up nine vertical football fields, including both end zones.
諷刺的是，在同一時間在蘇格蘭的風電場走在前面，一個類似的項目被拒絕在敦貝格，愛爾蘭，在那裡我建立另一個美麗的度假勝地批准。該計劃有九個413英尺的渦輪機，這跟排隊九縱足球領域，包括兩端的區域，慣了奢華的看法。
Fortunately, this plan was denied because the turbines might harm the estimated 7,000 freshwater pearl mussels, an endangered species on the European Union list, that were living in the Doonbeg River, and also be bad for tourism.
幸運的是，這個計劃被拒絕，因為渦輪機可能會損害大約7000名淡水珍珠蚌，歐盟列表中的瀕危物種，生活在敦貝格的那河，也為旅遊業是壞的。
This magnificent golf course resort, absolutely one of the best in the world, was offering huge benefits to the local economy.
這個宏偉的高爾夫球場度假，在世界上最好的絕對之一，提供給當地經濟帶來巨大效益。
We were saved by mussels.
我們被蚌保存。
The bottom line is that we are going to remain dependent on oil and natural gas to fill our energy needs for a long time into the future. So if we are going to become energy independent, we need to keep drilling. The good news is that we have tremendous supplies of fossil fuels. We just need to decide to go after it.
底線是，我們要繼續依賴石油和天然氣，以填補了很久的未來我們的能源需求。所以，如果我們要成為獨立的能源，我們需要不斷地鑽探。好消息是，我們有化石燃料的巨大供應。我們只需要決定後它去。
We need to use every cost-effective method we have available to retrieve these resources. That includes fracking. For those who don’t know, fracking is a technology that involves injecting fluids into shale beds at a very high pressure to free locked-in resources. It makes it possible to recover vast amounts of oil and gas that otherwise can’t be reached through traditional methods.
我們需要使用我們可利用檢索這些資源每成本效益的方法。這包括壓裂。對於那些不知道誰，水力壓裂是涉及在非常高的壓力，以釋放鎖定的資源將流體注入頁岩床的技術。它使之有可能回收大量的石油和天然氣，否則無法通過傳統的方法來達到。
While New York governor Andrew Cuomo has banned fracking, this technology has created an economic boom in North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. There were more jobs created and less unemployment in those areas than practically anywhere else in the country. Upstate New Yorkers would like to replicate that boom in their region, lower taxes, and pay off massive New York State debt.
儘管紐約州州長安德魯科莫已經禁止水力壓裂技術，該技術已經創造了北達科他州，賓夕法尼亞州和俄亥俄州的經濟繁榮。有創造了更多的就業機會，比在國內幾乎任何地方這些地區的失業率更低。上州紐約人想複製在其區域內，降低稅收的熱潮，並還清大量紐約州的債務。
The bottom line on energy is that until there is a better “alternate” or “green” way of supplying our energy needs, we must put our resources to work for us, and now.
對能源的底線是，直到有提供我們的能源需求的一個更好的“替代”或“綠色”的方式，我們必須把我們的資源來為我們工作，現在。